Ash from Iceland’s Grimsvötn volcano could affect Heathrow by the end of the weekThis article titled “Ash cloud moves towards UK airspace” was written by Dan Milmo and Adam Gabbatt, for guardian.co.uk on Monday 23rd May 2011 10.04 UTCAirlines and airports have been warned to expect ash from an erupting Icelandic volcano to arrive in UK airspace by Tuesday, with the possibility that it could affect Heathrow airport by the end of the week.The safety watchdog for British airlines and airports, the Civil Aviation Authority, said today that particles from the Grimsvötn volcano could reach Scotland by midnight tonight and western England by Thursday or Friday, depending on wind direction.If airspace in western England, Ireland and the Atlantic is affected by the smoke plume transatlantic flights in and out of Heathrow could suffer delays later this week as planes are diverted around the most dense parts of the cloud.However, the Civil Aviation Authority said it was confident that a new Europe-wide safety regime introduced after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption last year would reduce disruption significantly and avoid the continental shutdown that stranded millions. Under the new operating procedures, it is understood that the effect of last year’s plume on commercial routes would have been 75% smaller.Nonetheless, some disruption is expected as airplanes divert around the heaviest parts of the cloud. According to the latest forecasts, Inverness and Aberdeen are the most likely airports to suffer disruption tomorrow, although the most accurate estimates can only predict six hours ahead.“Our number one priority is to ensure the safety of people both on board aircraft and on the ground. We can’t rule out disruption, but the new arrangements that have been put in place since last year’s ash cloud mean the aviation sector is better prepared and will help to reduce any disruption in the event that volcanic ash affects UK airspace,” said Andrew Haines, CAA chief executive.Under previous guidelines, aircraft were summarily grounded if there was any volcanic ash in the air. Now, airlines can fly through ash plumes if they can demonstrate that their fleets can handle medium or high-level densities of ash.The Met Office’s volcanic ash advisory centre will identify the density and location of the cloud, aided by satellite images, weather balloons and a radar specially installed for monitoring purposes in Iceland last year. Once those zones are relayed to airlines, they will need to prove that they can fly through them by producing “safety cases” that will include information from aircraft and engine manufacturers on the airline’s tolerance to volcanic ash.A CAA spokesman said all major UK airlines already had safety preparations for medium-density ash clouds.“We are in a much better position than last time,” he said. “Safety will still be paramount but we will be able to drastically reduce disruption compared to last time, provided there is not a huge amount of high-density ash.” The spokesman said a similar level of ash to the Eyjafjallajökull incident would not result in a mass-grounding. “It will be a different picture.” However, jets will have to divert around high-density clouds, causing delays on some routes, because no UK airline has submitted a safety case for flying through heavy ash plumes.BAA, the owner of Heathrow, Stansted, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen airports, has convened a crisis support team to prepare for a reduction in flights, as airlines and airports await a further briefing from Eurocontrol and the UK air traffic controller, Nats. “We are working closely with the CAA and Nats in preparing contingency plans if ash enters UK airspace,” it said.Under the new ash guidelines, cloud densities are split into three levels: low, medium and high. Once the Met Office assigns a particular density of ash to a section of airspace, airlines must prove they have the safety case to fly through it. A low density cloud is 2g of ash per 10 cubic metres of air, with medium being 2g to 4g of ash per 10 cubic metres. Anything above 4g is deemed high density.The Grimsvötn volcano began erupting on Sunday, causing flights to be cancelled at Iceland’s main Keflavik airport after it sent a plume of ash, smoke and steam 12 miles into the air. Experts have said the eruption was unlikely to have the dramatic impact that the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had in April 2010.“At the moment if the volcano continues to erupt to the same level it has been, and is now, the UK could be at risk of seeing volcanic ash later this week,” said Helen Chivers, a Met Office spokeswoman. “Quite when and how much we can’t really define at the moment.”She said the weather situation was likely to be different from last year, with the wind direction set to change continuously. She added: “If it moves in the way that we’re currently looking, with the eruption continuing the way it is, then if the UK is at risk later this week, then France and Spain could be as well.”While the ash has grounded aircraft in Iceland, it is not anticipated that it will have a similar impact in the rest of Europe.Dr Dave McGarvie, volcanologist at the Open University, said the amount of ash reaching the UK was “likely to be less than in the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption”, and the last two times Grimsvötn erupted it had not affected UK air travel.“In addition, the experience gained from the 2010 eruption, especially by the Met Office, the airline industry, and the engine manufacturers, should mean less disruption to travellers,” he said.The eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in south-east Iceland in April 2010 caused the worst disruption to international air travel since 9/11. Flights across Europe were cancelled for six days, stranding tens of thousands of people, and the eruption was estimated to have cost airlines £130m a day.Eurocontrol said in a statement: “There is currently no impact on European or transatlantic flights and the situation is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Aircraft operators are constantly being kept informed of the evolving situation.” guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.Thanks for subscribing to Andy Roberts blogAsh cloud moves towards UK airspaceRelated posts:How to pronounce EyjafjallajoekullAsh Grounds Planes, Rest Of World Cut OffTag Cloud
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Ash cloud moves towards UK airspace
http://distributedresearch.net/blog/2011/05/23/ash-cloud-moves-towards-uk-airspace
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May 23 2011, 4:09pm | Comments »
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Flybe profit warning sends share price crashing down
http://distributedresearch.net/blog/2011/05/05/flybe-profit-warning-sends-share-price-crashing-down
Flybe shares drop 25% as airline admits cash-strapped consumers are cutting back on air travel
This article titled “Flybe profit warning sends share price crashing down” was written by Dan Milmo, for The Guardian on Thursday 5th May 2011 16.42 UTC Flybe’s £215m flotation has come crashing down as the carrier’s shares shed 25% of their value in the wake of a profit warning over waning consumer appetite for air travel. The Exeter-based regional carrier bases its appeal on “affordable travel from the most convenient airport” but admitted that lower high street spending in the UK had affected demand for cheap flights since the new year, with domestic routes among the hardest hit. Despite warning of cash-strapped customers, Flybe also announced a £3 fuel surcharge on all flights from September. Flybe said the slowdown in consumer outlay, already indicated by trading woes at high street names such as HMV and Mothercare, had affected “discretionary spend” on air travel and triggered significant analysts’ downgrades. Flybe said it expected pre-tax profits for this year to be broadly in line with the 2010/11 figures, which put it heavily out of kilter with analysts’ expectations. Investors ignored Flybe’s defence of its “resilient and flexible” business model of flying from small airports such as Southampton and Norwich, and sold the shares heavily. Shareholders had expected a pre-tax profit of about £36m, not the £22m indicated in the trading update, and Flybe’s shares slumped 25% to 172.50p, far below the flotation price of 295p last December. Flybe’s new investors included George Soros, the hedge fund tycoon, who acquired a 3.4% stake on flotation and whose more assured bets included starting a run on the pound in 1992. British Airways owns a further 15% of the business. One of the pioneers of add-on charges including baggage fees when it rebranded from British European in 2002, Flybe said the £3 fuel surcharge would be dropped if the price of Brent crude fell below $75 (£45.60) per barrel for 28 consecutive days; its current price is $117 per barrel. Flybe also indicated cutbacks on its domestic routes as it flagged the possible disposal of surplus aircraft, believed to include the Bombardier Q400 turboprop planes that are used on its UK services. In its trading update the company did not expand on its strategy of building its presence in continental Europe but it is understood that Flybe is standing by plans to add 35 Embraer aircraft to its 68-strong fleet, with the option of buying 105 more. The £66m float proceeds have been earmarked for the expansion, which includes codeshare deals where it operates flights on another carrier’s behalf. Iata warning The International Air Transport Association (Iata) warned that the financial markets have taken a bearish stance on airlines. Airline share prices have underperformed stock markets by 17% this year, Iata said, and investors now fear that carriers will be hard hit by higher fuel costs – about a quarter of the industry’s cost base – and the consequent effect on demand as higher prices hit sales. “Financial markets, bullish over airlines through 2010, now believe the industry will suffer more than most in this high fuel cost and demand-shock environment,” said Iata. Flybe said demand from business travellers, who account for 45% of its customers, remained strong. “This sector has proved very resilient,” said Flybe, echoing recent comments by Iata, which said demand for business class travel was holding up more strongly than in the back of the cabin. The premium airline market grew 7.7% in February, compared with a 3.3% improvement in economy class traffic.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 Published via the Guardian News Feed plugin for WordPress.
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May 5 2011, 12:46pm | Comments »
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Ash Grounds Planes, Rest Of World Cut Off
http://distributedresearch.net/blog/2010/04/17/ash-grounds-planes-rest-of-world-cut-off
The rest of the world remains isolated today as the volcanic ash cloud from Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull eruption continues to ground nearly all flights in or out of UK airports for a third day. People are only just starting to understand the implications of this drastic shit down for the airline industries and for the wider economy, and to think twice about how reliant so many human activities have become on air freight and passenger services. If you want to get back to the UK today there are only two ways to do it – by taking to the now crowded international (eg Dover – Calais) ferry routes or through the channel tunnel by Eurostar or shuttle. @HeathrowAirport No flights arriving or departing from Heathrow until 6am tomorrow, at the earliest. Next update due at 8pm this evening #ashtag The obvious advice during this unprecedented period is not to set off without a booking, and if due to fly next week, keep checking the flight news before leaving for the airport. Nobody knows how long it will take to get everything back to normal, or how long the ash cloud will persist. The volcano is still emitting plumes of ash and the weather conditions remain stable with the dangerous (to jet engines) cloud spreading all over the UK and Europe.
For people who aren’t planning on going anywhere the skies are uniquely empty of aircraft noise and jet trails bringing a surprising tranquility to areas which don’t normally think of themselves as bothered by flight paths, and for photographers the light conditions are perceptively different, with unbroken hazy blue sky scapes. @MarinaPepper Deeply textured bird song – no deep rumbling roar or whining. Hadn’t realised how horrid Gatwick noise was even here in #Lewes #ashtag
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Related posts:How to pronounce Eyjafjallajoekull
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April 17 2010, 2:18am | Comments »
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How to pronounce Eyjafjallajoekull
http://distributedresearch.net/blog/2010/04/15/how-to-pronounce-eyjafjallajoekull
Airports all over the UK have been closed by a volcanic ash cloud spreading from Iceland where a volcano has erupted. The fragments in the ash cloud are said to represent a serious threat to airline engines, so the closures however inconvenient, are on safety grounds, starting with Scotland and now affecting London’s Heathrow Airport as well. But how do you pronounce Eyjafjallajoekull?
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April 15 2010, 4:10am | Comments »
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